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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.90 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model