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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(:50) 2-K.Brindza 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model