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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 5-J.Schum punts 40 yards to NO 7, Center-48-A.DePaola. 23-M.Murphy MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 7. 23-M.Murphy to NO 7 for no gain (89-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.08 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model