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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 2-K.Brindza 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model