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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 2-K.Brindza 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model