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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Drescher. 43-B.Rainey to TB 46 for 8 yards (53-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model