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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 5-J.Schum punts 37 yards to NO 20, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-89-R.Shepard. PENALTY on NO-30-D.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.25 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP