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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to TB 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 43-B.Rainey to TB 35 for 18 yards (91-K.Edebali).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.32 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model