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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 12-S.Bailey [92-C.Baker].

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model