Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Washington Commanders 17

(9:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 23 for 10 yards (15-B.Marquez).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.96 EP
59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model