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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-59-T.Plummer, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at WAS 17.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.68 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model