Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 85

Washington Commanders 17 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(13:02) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to LA 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-59-T.Plummer.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model