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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP