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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.67 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP