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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 3

Green Bay Packers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP