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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model