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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to GB 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.69 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.11 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model