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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to GB 11, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.36 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model