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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 32 yards to MIA 20, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-L.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP