Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(1:54) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 52 yards to JAX 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-R.Greene to JAX 28 for 6 yards (52-K.Sheppard).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model