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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model