Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to JAX 32, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-N.Marshall to JAX 44 for 12 yards (49-Z.Vigil). Penalty on JAX-52-L.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on JAX-55-D.Skuta, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.69 EP
52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model