Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

(2:09) 19-B.Anger punts 53 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-J.Landry to MIA 36 for 7 yards (52-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.58 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model