4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-J.Landry to MIA 45 for 19 yards (52-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model