Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to HOU 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 25 for no gain (21-T.Williams). PENALTY on HOU-21-D.Morris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model