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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 24 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-J.Crick), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model