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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 6

Houston Texans 10 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett scrambles right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model