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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 17 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 8-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 32 for 15 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model