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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 8-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to HOU 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 34 for 15 yards (97-M.Addison). PENALTY on HOU-57-J.Tuggle, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.56 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model