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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 8-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to HOU 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 30 for 12 yards (84-E.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model