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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to CAR 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 30.

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.80 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model