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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 10

Carolina Panthers 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 10, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model