Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 66

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

(10:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 39 for 17 yards (46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.51 EP
78% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model