Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 0

(14:48) 8-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to HOU 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 28 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model