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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 41

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short left to 41-J.Grimes to CAR 38 for 3 yards (54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model