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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 87

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to 50, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-95-B.Copeland.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 87, worth -5.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model