4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 15-G.Tate. PENALTY on DET-83-T.Wright, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DET 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.61 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP