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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 54

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(7:35) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 19 for 7 yards (59-T.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP