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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 5

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(6:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model