4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(12:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 42 yards to DET 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-G.Tate to DET 23 for 2 yards (35-M.Sherels).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.81 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP