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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 62

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(:55) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for 1 yard (42-I.Abdul-Quddus).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model