4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 8

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model