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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(14:31) (Run formation) 5-T.Bridgewater left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-94-E.Ansah, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model