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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 30

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PENALTY on LV-90-D.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model