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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 15
Baltimore Ravens 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 30
What Actually Happened
(8:22) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to LV 13 for 2 yards (Team).
The Three Options
GO
+2.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP
KICK
+1.86 EP
- 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
