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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.51 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model