Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to LV 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-T.Carrie pushed ob at BAL 45 for 25 yards (4-S.Koch). PENALTY on LV-51-B.Heeney, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model