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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model