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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 29-J.Forsett left end pushed ob at BAL 30 for 1 yard (25-D.Hayden).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model