Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 98

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to SEA 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-34-C.Reynolds was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -4.15 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.14 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 98, worth -6.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model